聚焦全球能源 | IEA下调原油需求预测

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly downgraded its 2025 oil demand forecast, indicating that with OPEC+ increasing production, concerns about oversupply in the oil market may intensify. The rising penetration of electric vehicles is expected to continue putting pressure on oil prices, which may drop to $55 this year [3]. IEA Oil Demand Forecast - The IEA's multiple downgrades of oil demand forecasts suggest a potential oversupply in the market due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 54,700 barrels per day in September. This could lead to a supply surplus of up to 600,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, resulting in increased global oil inventories [5][8]. - If OPEC+ exits its next phase of voluntary production cuts (1.66 million barrels per day), U.S. comparable inventories (crude oil, gasoline, and diesel) could rise from 764 million barrels in the week of August 8 to 814 million barrels, an increase of 6.6% [5][6]. OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 54,700 barrels per day in September, marking the end of a voluntary production cut phase that began in 2023. While this increase has helped the organization regain market control, it may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter [8]. - From July 30 to August 15, WTI oil prices fell by 9.4% to $62.80. Although the market does not rule out the possibility of OPEC+ exiting the next phase of voluntary cuts, it is expected that the organization will not consider this option until the first quarter of 2026, as policymakers may want to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on global oil demand first [8].