科技股热潮会否终结银行股行情？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector's profitability pressure has eased compared to the same period last year, with the main challenges remaining in interest margin contraction and risks in personal loans and real estate [3]. Group 1: Changes in the Banking Sector - Today's bank stocks are significantly different from those a decade ago, primarily due to the gradual resolution of risks in the real estate sector, indicating that the most dangerous phase has passed [7]. - The improvement in the credit system over the past decade has played a crucial role in reducing the bad debt ratio of banks [8]. - The main concern for bank stocks now is the narrowing of net interest margins, which is seen as a controllable factor that is nearing its bottom [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The recent rally in bank stocks is not a short-term phenomenon, with significant participation from various institutional investors, including insurance funds and public funds [10][12]. - The trading chips have concentrated towards long-term investors, as bank stocks have been undervalued for an extended period, attracting those focused on long-term value [14]. - The current market sees both trading and allocation funds buying into bank stocks, leading to a situation where buying pressure exceeds selling pressure [15]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - The key to determining whether bank stocks are overvalued lies in their valuation metrics rather than short-term price fluctuations [17]. - The reasonable valuation for high-quality domestic bank stocks is estimated to be between 1 to 1.5 times price-to-book ratio [19]. - The negative impact factors for banks over the next five years are expected to be significantly reduced compared to the past five years, particularly regarding real estate and trade conflicts [20].