9月资金面迎考：超2万亿逆回购到期叠加市场火热

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as multiple factors contribute to a funding gap in September, but overall liquidity is expected to remain reasonably ample with low volatility in interest rates [2][9]. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Central Bank Operations - In early September, the central bank conducted reverse repos but faced a net withdrawal of funds due to the amount of reverse repos maturing exceeding the amount of new operations [4][5]. - The central bank's operations resulted in a cumulative net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan over the first two days of September, with significant amounts of reverse repos maturing throughout the month [6][9]. - Despite the pressures from maturing funds, the overall interest rates remained stable, with the overnight Shibor rate at 1.315% and the 7-day Shibor at 1.438% on September 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Expectations for September - Analysts expect that the funding situation will remain reasonably ample due to supportive central bank policies and increased fiscal spending, leading to a likely continuation of low and stable interest rates [9][10]. - September is typically a month of increased fiscal spending, which is expected to provide support for liquidity, especially towards the end of the month [9][10]. - Historical trends indicate that funding rates in September often show a pattern of oscillation, with the first half of the month typically remaining stable before increasing volatility later on [10][11]. Group 3: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - The funding landscape in September is influenced by both seasonal factors, such as increased liquidity demand at the end of the month, and non-seasonal factors, including the strong performance of the equity market [11][12]. - The potential for increased credit issuance at the end of the month may lead to more pronounced liquidity fluctuations compared to previous years, driven by the need for banks to meet regulatory assessments [11][12].