为什么总是赎回在上涨前？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate the volatility of the A-share market, especially as it recently surpassed the 3800-point mark. Investors should prepare for both gains and losses, as the market does not guarantee a one-way upward journey [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Despite the current bullish sentiment and many funds reaching historical highs, numerous investors redeemed their holdings before the market's rise. Data shows that from 2022 to 2024, the net subscription scale of equity funds continuously shrank, with significant net redemptions in the first and fourth quarters of 2024 [3][4]. - Many investors did not endure the market downturn alongside their funds, resulting in missed opportunities for recent gains [3]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Challenges - The Shanghai Composite Index has a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% since its inception in 1990, but it also has an annualized volatility of 43.71%, which is significantly higher than many other global indices [7]. - Since 2014, the annual maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 and equity fund indices has exceeded 15% in about 60% of the years, with the ChiNext Index experiencing over 15% drawdowns every year since 2014 [8][9]. Group 3: Timing Strategies and Their Limitations - Investors often wish to time the market to buy low and sell high, but this is frequently counterproductive. Missing just a few of the best-performing days can drastically reduce annualized returns [11][14]. - From 2014 to the present, holding equity funds consistently yields an average annual return of around 15%, but missing the top-performing days can lead to significantly lower or even negative returns [14][16]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article suggests that different asset types have varying risk-return characteristics, and a reasonable asset allocation can help reduce portfolio volatility and alleviate the need for timing the market [20]. - Simulations show that adjusting asset allocations, such as incorporating dividend assets and global indices, can lead to smoother net value curves and reduced drawdowns during market declines [24][26][30]. - A final portfolio that includes a mix of equity funds, dividend indices, global indices, gold, and bonds demonstrates significantly improved performance and reduced volatility compared to a portfolio solely invested in equity funds [33][35]. Group 5: Importance of Diversification - The article highlights that diversification in asset allocation is crucial for investors, as it provides the necessary resilience to endure market downturns and ultimately benefit from long-term gains [36]. - The concept of diversification as a "free lunch" in investing is supported by notable figures in finance, emphasizing the need for a well-rounded investment approach [37].