油价，突然跳水！

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading [3][4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries participating. This move aims to regain market share [6]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output could account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [6]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional 300,000 barrels per day allocated to the UAE. However, actual production increases have not met these commitments due to various member countries needing to compensate for previous overproduction and capacity constraints [6]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, predicting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day. The 2025 demand forecast remains unchanged, with an expected increase of 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [7][8]. - The upward revision in demand expectations is attributed to improved economic growth forecasts in certain regions, including the OECD, the Middle East, and Africa [8]. Group 3: Future Oil Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude oil prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026. The firm expects a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [9]. - It is noted that one-third of the accumulated inventory will be stored in OECD countries, which are also expected to experience a decline in oil demand, further pressuring oil prices [9]. - While oil prices may remain stable near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent's "fair value" projected to decrease from the current $70 range to the $50 range [9].