事关降息！美联储，大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a probability of 89.6% according to market data [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Alberto G. Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, indicated that the U.S. labor market faces increasing downside risks, particularly due to a weak real estate market [3]. - Musalem noted that the current policy interest rate is moderately restrictive and is consistent with a fully employed labor market, being nearly one percentage point above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3]. - He anticipates a gradual cooling of the labor market while remaining close to full employment, with recent data increasing concerns about labor market downside risks [3]. - Musalem expects tariffs to impact the economy over the next two to three quarters, after which their effect on inflation will diminish, predicting inflation will converge towards 2% by the second half of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, expressed support for a rate cut at the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts may follow depending on economic data [5]. - Waller emphasized that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized and reiterated the need for flexibility in the pace of rate cuts based on economic performance [5]. - He projected that inflation may experience slight fluctuations but will not be persistent, expecting it to approach the 2% long-term target within six months [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market consensus indicates a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with discussions shifting towards the number of potential cuts thereafter [9]. - HSBC's Chief Asia Economist, Fan Limin, predicts a 25 basis point cut in September but cautions that strong employment data could delay this decision [9]. - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist, Ellen Zentner, noted that the Fed is open to rate cuts, with the extent depending on whether labor market weakness poses a greater risk than rising inflation [9].