Western Region Gold (SH:601069) 21世纪经济报道·2025-09-03 15:55Core Viewpoint - After a four-month high-level consolidation, international gold prices are beginning to prepare for a new round of increases, with Comex gold futures breaking through $3,630 per ounce and spot gold reaching a high of $3,565 per ounce, both surpassing historical highs from April [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The gold sector in the A-share market has seen an average increase of 11.35% since September, with Western Gold experiencing a "three consecutive boards" trend, significantly outperforming other gold stocks [4]. - The performance differences among gold companies may be attributed to Western Gold's better earnings elasticity, with revenue and profit growth of 69% and 132% year-on-year, ranking second and third among ten companies in the Shenwan gold sector [5]. Group 2: Earnings Elasticity - The earnings elasticity of companies in the Shenwan gold sector varies, influenced by historical baselines, business models, and revenue structures. For instance, Western Gold's high growth rate in the first half of the year is based on a low baseline from the same period in 2024 [5]. - Mining companies' profit margins are highly correlated with gold price trends, with Shanjin International's gross margin for gold products increasing by 7.2 percentage points to 79% in the first half of the year [7]. - In contrast, refining-focused gold companies face rising raw material costs, leading to a decrease in profit margins, as seen with Hunan Gold, where the gross margin fell by 1.4 percentage points to 2.43% [7]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - Fund holdings in the Shenwan gold sector have fluctuated significantly, increasing from 1.787 billion shares to 2.261 billion shares before dropping to 1.658 billion shares by the end of 2024. However, recent gold price increases have prompted funds to re-increase their holdings, reaching 2.089 billion shares by mid-2023 [10]. - The top three gold stocks with the highest increase in fund holding ratios since the end of 2024 are Chifeng Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, and Shandong Gold, with increases of over 3 percentage points [10]. - The most significant growth in fund holdings during the first half of the year was seen in Xiaocheng Technology, Sichuan Gold, and Western Gold, with increases exceeding 100% [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With Comex gold futures breaking through $3,600 and the potential for a new upward trend, market enthusiasm for gold stocks has been reignited, particularly for companies with strong earnings elasticity and significant fund increases in the first half of the year [12].