美国就业市场再添危险信号

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a cooling labor market in the U.S., indicated by a significant drop in job vacancies, which may influence future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4]. Labor Market Data - As of July 31, job vacancies decreased by 176,000 to 7.181 million, marking the lowest level since September of the previous year and the second-lowest since the pandemic began in 2020 [3]. - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, excluding the pandemic period [3]. - The number of layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, with the private sector layoff rate reaching 1.3%, up from a historical low of 1% a year ago, but still below the 1.4% level from 2010-2019 [3]. Consumer Spending Impact - Changes in the job market may begin to affect consumer spending, potentially hindering economic expansion. Personal consumption expenditure growth was 1.6% in Q2, but is expected to slow to 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in the last quarter of the year due to rising prices and a slowing job market [4]. Policy Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a modest increase of 75,000 jobs in August, falling below the critical threshold of 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [6]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts, acknowledging rising risks in the labor market, while inflation remains a concern [7]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceed 90% [7]. - Discrepancies exist among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of further easing, with some suggesting that current policy rates are only slightly restrictive [7][8]. Economic Uncertainty - The impact of tariffs continues to create significant uncertainty, with expectations that the effects will last for two to three quarters before dissipating, although they could persist longer [7]. - The labor market is described as "low hiring, low firepower," indicating that individuals who lose jobs are finding it increasingly difficult to secure new employment [3].