事关降息！美联储，大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a probability of 89.6% according to market data [2][10]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Risks - Alberto G. Musalem, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, indicated that the U.S. labor market faces increasing downside risks, particularly due to a weak real estate market [4]. - Musalem expects the labor market to gradually cool while remaining close to full employment, with recent data reinforcing his concerns about labor market risks [5]. - He anticipates that tariffs will impact the economy over the next two to three quarters, after which their effect on inflation will diminish, projecting inflation to converge towards 2% by the second half of 2026 [6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, expressed support for a rate cut at the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts may follow depending on economic data [8]. - Waller noted that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has stabilized and emphasized that the Fed can adjust the pace of rate cuts based on incoming data [8]. - Market expectations indicate a 10.4% chance of maintaining rates in September, while cumulative cuts of 25 and 50 basis points have probabilities of 47.3% and 47.9%, respectively, for October [10]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Future Rate Cuts - There is a consensus that the Fed will likely cut rates this year, but opinions vary on the number of cuts. Some analysts predict 5 to 6 cuts, while others, like HSBC's chief economist, suggest a maximum of 3 cuts post-September [11]. - Ellen Zentner from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management stated that the Fed has opened the door for rate cuts, but the extent will depend on whether labor market weakness poses a greater risk than rising inflation [11].