银行半年报观察：信贷扩张分化明显，零售贷款风险抬升

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector is characterized by "stable total, optimized structure, and regional differentiation" amid insufficient effective credit demand and narrowing net interest margins. Despite challenges, some regional banks have achieved double-digit loan growth, primarily driven by corporate loans, while asset quality remains a concern, particularly in retail loans [2][6][9]. Group 1: Loan Growth and Structure - In the first half of the year, 9 banks, all city commercial banks, achieved loan growth exceeding 10%, with notable performances from Xi'an Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chengdu Bank [4][5]. - Overall, listed banks' loan total increased by 7.98% year-on-year, with corporate loans contributing 84.6% of the increment, indicating a strong reliance on corporate lending for credit expansion [6][7]. - The growth in loans is concentrated in regions with active economies, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, with Sichuan leading at an 11.8% growth rate [6][7]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Profitability - The banking sector's overall net interest margin was 1.39%, down 13 basis points year-on-year, with state-owned banks experiencing the largest decline [7][8]. - Six major banks saw a 2% year-on-year decline in net interest income, with only the Bank of Communications reporting positive growth [7][8]. - City commercial banks like Xi'an, Nanjing, Jiangsu, and Ningbo managed to achieve over 10% growth in net interest income due to a combination of rapid growth and resilient margins [7][8]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risks - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks remained stable at 1.23%, with corporate loan NPL ratios improving, while retail loan risks, particularly in personal operating loans and mortgages, have increased [9][10]. - City commercial banks reported the lowest corporate NPL ratio at 0.76%, while state-owned banks had the highest at 1.35% [9][10]. - The rise in retail loan NPLs is attributed to declining real estate prices affecting collateral values, leading to increased risk exposure [10]. Group 4: Capital Adequacy and Future Outlook - Some banks, particularly in the shareholding sector, face capital adequacy pressures, with certain banks nearing the regulatory minimum for core Tier 1 capital [11]. - Future projections indicate a potential further narrowing of net interest margins by 5 to 10 basis points, but quality regional banks are expected to benefit from financing demands in infrastructure, manufacturing, and green transitions [11].