波动加大，莫慌！下一波机遇在这里！

Group 1 - The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 15.2 times P/E, which is at the 88th percentile level since 2010, indicating that only 12% of the time in the past 15 years has the valuation been higher than now [2] - The equity risk premium for the Shanghai Composite Index is about 0.5 percentage points, which is at the 50th percentile level since 2010, suggesting that current stock investments are neither particularly cheap nor expensive compared to government bonds [3] - The contradiction of "high valuation but not extreme premium" is fundamentally due to the changes in the interest rate environment, which has led to a reconfiguration of the valuation system [4] Group 2 - Industry valuations show significant differentiation, with many sectors not reaching historical extremes despite high overall index valuations [6] - The TMT sector has a P/E of approximately 45.2 times, which is at the 75th percentile since 2010, and is significantly lower than its peak of 90 times in 2021 [7] - The semiconductor sector has a P/E of 42.5 times, still below its peak of 70 times in 2020, indicating room for growth [7] Group 3 - The total margin financing balance reached a historical high of 230.56 billion yuan on September 1, but the proportion of margin financing to the total A-share market capitalization is only 2.45%, indicating that leverage is not excessively high [10] - The trading volume of margin financing accounts for 11.8% of total market transactions, which is lower than the peak of 15% in 2015, suggesting that leverage trading activity remains within a reasonable range [13] - The consensus is that the mid-2025 earnings report may represent the low point for the year, with subsequent quarters expected to show improvement [16] Group 4 - The TMT sector is expected to lead the market in September, supported by policy, technology, and funding catalysts [19][22] - The government has set a target for the digital economy to account for over 10% of GDP by 2025, indicating strong policy support for the sector [23] - Recent advancements in AI technology are driving exponential growth in computing power demand, further supporting the TMT sector's growth potential [24]