今夜！美联储，降息重磅消息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the U.S. labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, highlighting a trend of weakening employment data that may lead to a rate cut in September [2][4][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Data - The ADP private employment report indicated an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the revised 106,000 from July, suggesting a notable decline in hiring intentions among employers [4]. - The labor market has shown a continuous trend of job growth below 100,000 for four consecutive months, marking the weakest phase since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [4]. - Market reactions to the ADP data were muted, as investors interpreted the weak figures as a potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, with a 90% probability priced in for a rate cut [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts suggest that the weak employment data reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve may lean towards a rate cut in September, as the labor market's positive changes are slowing down [5][6]. - The expectation is that economic support in the second half of the year will come from more accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus to prevent further economic deterioration [6]. - The upcoming employment report is viewed as critical, with the potential for worsening data to raise concerns about the overall health of the economy [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Nominee and Independence - Stephen Milan, a nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasized his commitment to the independence of the central bank during his Senate confirmation hearing, countering concerns that he would act as a spokesperson for former President Trump [7][10]. - The confirmation process for Milan is being expedited by Republican senators, aiming to have him approved before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 [10][11]. - The article notes that despite concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, there has been no significant opposition from Republican senators regarding Milan's nomination, reflecting Trump's continued influence within the party [10][11].