最新！美联储降息概率逼近100%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly expected to lower interest rates in September, with a near 100% probability of a 25 basis points cut, influenced by the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - As of September 5, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates is only 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is 99.4% [3][6]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October is just 0.3%, with a cumulative 25 basis points cut probability at 44.5% and a 50 basis points cut at 55.3% [7]. Group 2: Non-Farm Payroll Report Insights - The non-farm payroll report for August is anticipated to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, slightly above July's 73,000, with an expected unemployment rate increase from 4.2% to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [7]. - Average hourly earnings are projected to remain flat month-over-month, with year-over-year growth slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% [7]. - Standard Chartered Bank suggests that to eliminate the possibility of a September rate cut, the non-farm payroll number would need to exceed 130,000, along with upward revisions to previous data [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Gold Prices - Gold prices have been rising, with spot prices reaching $3,546.82 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [10][13]. - The gold market has seen a significant increase, with a weekly rise of approximately 2.9%, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-June [13]. - The current upward momentum in gold prices is attributed to continuous weak economic data, which reinforces optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [13][14].