新会计准则下如何评估寿险公司的价值

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new accounting standards IFRS 9 and IFRS 17 in 2023 has significantly enhanced the transparency of insurance companies' financial statements, allowing for more accurate assessments of their operational performance and value. However, many analysts continue to rely on outdated valuation models, leading to underutilization of the valuable information provided by the new standards [1]. Group 1: New Valuation Paradigm Established by New Standards - The old accounting standards lacked transparency in the measurement of insurance liabilities and did not provide relevant information for value assessment. The new standards allow for direct value assessment of life insurance companies based on their financial statements [2][3]. - Under the new standards, the market value of insurance contract liabilities is composed of the present value of future cash flows, non-financial risk adjustments, and contract service margins, which enhances the valuation process [4]. Group 2: Market Value of Insurance Contract Liabilities - The market value of insurance contract liabilities is calculated as the sum of the present value of future cash flows, non-financial risk adjustments, and contract service margins, adjusted for tax rates [4][9]. - The valuation process involves assumptions about future cash flows and the investment of those cash flows in risk-free assets, which can complicate the assessment of long-term insurance contract liabilities [5][6]. Group 3: Equity Value of Life Insurance Companies - The equity value of life insurance companies is derived from the difference between the market value of assets and liabilities, which can be calculated using the economic balance sheet approach [11]. - The theoretical equity value is the sum of adjusted net assets and tax-adjusted contract service margins, with the new valuation metric P/CSE expected to replace traditional metrics like P/B and P/EV [11]. Group 4: Differences Between CSM Valuation and EV Valuation - CSM valuation is based on financial accounting information and is more reliable and transparent compared to EV valuation, which relies on non-GAAP measures [21][22]. - CSM valuation provides better comparability and market consistency, as it is based on IFRS standards adopted globally, while EV valuation varies significantly across different markets [23][24]. Group 5: Practical Considerations for CSM Valuation - CSM valuation may be affected by the discount rate curve used, which can lead to discrepancies in market value assessments [27]. - The measurement of non-financial risk adjustments and actuarial assumptions can also impact the CSM, necessitating careful analysis of these factors [28][29]. Group 6: Measurement of New Business Value - The new business value under CSM valuation should be adjusted to account for new business CSM, first-year losses, and profits from non-insurance contracts, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of the company's value creation [30].