Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant slowdown in the U.S. job market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, far below the expected 76,500, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [2][3][6] - The average job growth over the past three months has been only 29,000, marking the weakest employment growth period since the pandemic, with non-farm employment remaining below 100,000 for four consecutive months [6][3] - Following the release of the employment data, traders are almost fully betting on a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting [11][8] Group 2 - The market reacted to the employment data with a rise in U.S. Treasury prices, leading to a decline in yields, with the two-year Treasury yield falling by 10 basis points to 3.48% and the ten-year yield dropping over 6 basis points to 4.1%, both reaching five-month lows [8][11] - Analysts suggest that the weakening job market necessitates lower interest rates to facilitate the transition of employment from the public sector to the private sector, predicting a series of rate cuts starting this month [13][11] - The U.S. dollar index fell, while the Chinese yuan appreciated following the employment report, indicating a shift in market sentiment [15][8]
直线拉升!刚刚!美联储,降息重磅!
中国基金报·2025-09-05 13:37