突然，全线跳水！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market has shown significant signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, raising concerns about the potential deterioration of the job market and the economy as a whole [2][3][4]. Employment Data Summary - The August non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [3]. - The non-farm employment figures for June were revised down from 14,000 to -13,000, marking the first negative growth in monthly employment since 2020 [3]. - The manufacturing sector saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs in August, with a total decline of 78,000 jobs year-to-date [3]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [3]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rising to 16% from 0% [2][4]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.87%, while gold prices surged by 1.48%, reaching a new historical high [2][5]. - U.S. stock indices initially rose to historical highs but later fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.52%, Nasdaq down 0.3%, and S&P 500 down 0.43% [2][7]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will need to consider larger rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September and further cuts thereafter [8]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 63.4% chance of cumulative cuts by 50 basis points by October [4][8].