德邦证券程强：“强国叙事”支撑A股慢牛，大量宽基指数估值仍不算高

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Chinese stock market is driven by the unfolding of the "strong country narrative," which has enhanced market risk appetite and led to a reassessment of Chinese assets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Investment Opportunities - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have emerged from low valuation levels, but many broad-based indices still have room for growth, indicating that the Chinese capital market remains a value trap compared to global markets [2][5]. - The long-term outlook is positive for sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption, which align with China's economic transformation [2][4]. - As of September 4, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for major A-share indices ranges from 12 to 39 times, with the Shanghai Composite Index at a relatively low PE of 11.8 times [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Economic Transition - The Chinese economy is transitioning from an investment and export-driven model to one focused on consumption, particularly in areas that enhance the quality of life for citizens [4]. - Despite an overall slowdown in profit growth, structural opportunities exist in high-growth sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, which are seen as key drivers of the "manufacturing powerhouse" initiative [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to improve competition in manufacturing sectors like automotive and photovoltaic industries, potentially benefiting from a more favorable competitive landscape [8][10]. - The "anti-involution" initiative is viewed as a long-term strategic design rather than a temporary measure, with expectations of a "Davis double hit" for midstream manufacturing firms as the policy effects materialize [10][11].