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中国婴配粉一哥,换人了吗
21世纪经济报道·2025-09-06 14:53

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the Chinese infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning - Yili claims the number one position in the overall infant formula market, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Feihe asserts its dominance as the leading single brand in the infant formula market, maintaining this position for six consecutive years, although its revenue declined by 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The difference in rankings arises from Yili's inclusion of sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, thereby combining the sales of two listed companies [1][2]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Aoyou Dairy's core product, the goat milk formula brand Jiabei Aite, saw a sales decline of 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating that its contribution to Yili's overall sales is less significant than anticipated [2]. - Despite Yili's overall sales growth, the primary driver remains the double-digit growth in its infant formula segment, while Aoyou plays a more auxiliary role [2]. - Feihe's sales decline is attributed to factors such as delays in the approval and launch of ultra-premium new products and proactive inventory reduction [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The Chinese infant formula market may face contraction due to a more than 20% decline in marriage registrations in 2024, suggesting a potential decrease in newborn numbers [2]. - However, the market is not necessarily losing its attractiveness, as government childcare subsidies may lead to a rebound in birth rates [3]. - The high-end segment of the infant formula market is becoming dominant, indicating a trend towards consumer spending upgrades, which presents significant profit opportunities for domestic dairy companies [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Domestic dairy companies like Yili and Feihe are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing consumption upgrade, with superior milk sources that exceed EU standards [3]. - Significant investments in research and development by domestic dairy firms have led to comparable product quality with international brands, particularly in the infant formula sector [3]. - The fluctuations in market rankings may actually be beneficial for the industry, fostering competition and driving progress [3].