KEDE Numerical (SH:688305) 格隆汇APP·2025-09-07 07:57Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic significance of the industrial mother machine sector, highlighting its role as the "heart" of equipment manufacturing and a core indicator of national manufacturing competitiveness. The sector is experiencing a revival driven by policy and market dynamics, with substantial growth potential projected for the coming years [2][3]. Market Overview - China has maintained its position as the world's largest producer and consumer of machine tools. The market size for industrial mother machines is expected to grow from 631.36 billion yuan in 2019 to 712.89 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2029, indicating significant development potential [2]. Policy Impact - A key policy initiative, the "High-Quality Standard System Construction Plan for Industrial Mother Machines," was jointly issued by the National Standardization Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This plan aims to transition the industry from "domestic production" to "high-end production," with goals to revise at least 300 standards by 2026 and achieve a 90% international standard conversion rate [4][5]. Industry Recovery - The mechanical industry in China has shown robust recovery, with revenue and profit growth rates of 7.8% and 9.4% respectively in the first half of 2025, surpassing the national industrial average. The production of metal cutting machine tools increased by 13.5%, reflecting a strong recovery trend [6]. Investment Logic - Three major investment logics are driving the industrial mother machine sector: 1. Domestic Replacement: The current domestic market for high-end CNC machine tools has a low localization rate of under 20%, with expectations to rise to 60% by 2030, indicating a significant replacement opportunity [8]. 2. Emerging Demand: Rapid growth in sectors like electric vehicles and humanoid robots is creating new demand for precision machining equipment, with the humanoid robot market projected to reach 75 billion yuan by 2029 [9][10]. 3. Technological Advancements: Domestic companies are achieving breakthroughs in core technologies, enhancing competitiveness and accelerating the replacement process [8][9]. Future Trends - The industry is expected to focus on three key trends: 1. Integration of smart manufacturing with industrial mother machines, particularly through the application of digital twin and AI technologies [12]. 2. Equipment upgrade demands driven by new material processing, including composite materials and high-temperature alloys [12]. 3. Opportunities for domestic equipment to expand into global markets, especially in the "Belt and Road" initiative [12]. Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should prioritize: 1. High-end CNC machine manufacturers, particularly in five-axis linkage technology [12]. 2. Core component manufacturers such as CNC systems and spindles, which are overcoming critical bottlenecks [12]. 3. Specialized equipment manufacturers in the new energy and aerospace sectors, benefiting from emerging demand [12]. Key Monitoring Points - Companies should closely monitor: 1. The timing of policy implementation, including special loans and tax incentives [13]. 2. Capacity release from new production lines expected to come online in 2025 [13]. 3. Export growth driven by competitive pricing due to a low RMB exchange rate [13].