出海，选孟加拉吗？

Core Viewpoint - The political upheaval in Bangladesh has created both opportunities and risks for Chinese enterprises looking to invest in the country, which has a large population and significant growth potential [4][5][6]. Political Transition - The political crisis in Bangladesh in 2024 was triggered by the government's controversial decision to restore a quota system for civil service recruitment, leading to widespread protests and the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after 15 years in power [8][9][12]. - The new interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, aims to stabilize the economy and adjust foreign policies to enhance cooperation with various countries, including China [12][16][20]. Economic Impact - The political turmoil has severely impacted Bangladesh's economy, with GDP growth expectations for the 2024-25 fiscal year dropping to 3.8%, the lowest in nearly two decades [17]. - Inflation rates surged, reaching approximately 12% in July 2024, prompting the central bank to tighten monetary policy and allow currency depreciation to stabilize the economy [17][18]. Investment Opportunities - Bangladesh's demographic advantage, with a population of 170 million and a significant youth demographic, presents substantial market potential, particularly in consumer goods and technology sectors [25][26]. - The government maintains an open stance towards foreign investment, offering tax incentives and establishing export processing zones to attract foreign enterprises [27]. Infrastructure and Industry - There is a pressing need for infrastructure development, particularly in transportation and energy sectors, as the capital Dhaka faces severe congestion and power shortages [28]. - The government encourages diversification in manufacturing, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, to reduce reliance on garment exports [28]. Bilateral Relations with China - The new government continues to foster friendly relations with China, signing multiple cooperation agreements and securing $2.1 billion in funding for infrastructure projects [20][22]. - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to invest in Bangladesh, with significant commitments already made in various sectors, including textiles and manufacturing [21][22]. Strategic Positioning - Bangladesh is positioned as a strategic hub in South Asia, with a favorable environment for Chinese investments compared to neighboring countries like India and Pakistan [32]. - The country is seen as a long-term base for Chinese enterprises rather than a short-term entry point into the Indian market, necessitating a careful and sustained approach to investment [32][33].