A股9月“趔趄”：倒车接人还是杠杆泡沫？

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend, referred to as the "water buffalo" market, is driven not only by liquidity but also by strong policy expectations and fundamental improvements, distinguishing it from the previous "leverage bull" market in 2015 [1][12]. Market Performance - In the first eight months of the year, the Chinese A-share market performed well, reaching a nearly 10-year high, but faced a decline in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a weekly drop of 1.18% [2]. - The financing balance, a key indicator of "leveraged funds," reached a historical high of 2.28 trillion yuan on September 1, surpassing the previous record set in June 2015 [2][9]. Financing Balance Analysis - Experts suggest that the new high in financing balance does not necessarily indicate a "leverage bubble," as the total market value has significantly increased compared to ten years ago [3][11]. - The current financing balance of 2.28 trillion yuan represents only 2.40% of the circulating market value, compared to 4.26% in 2015, indicating a lower leverage level [10][11]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The rapid influx of leveraged funds has created market hotspots, with significant net buying in stocks like Xinyi Technology and Shenghong Technology, which are closely tied to the movements of leveraged funds [7]. - Despite some individual stocks showing signs of bubble, the overall A-share market is still considered undervalued, and the current market structure is more mature and regulated compared to 2015 [10][11]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that the previous "leverage bull" market in 2015 led to a market crash shortly after reaching a high, while the current market dynamics are different, with more robust economic indicators and regulatory frameworks [9][12]. - Analysts believe that the current market is supported by favorable policies, liquidity, and valuation, suggesting a long-term positive trend for the Chinese stock market [16][17].