法国政府又要垮台？行业大罢工在即

Core Viewpoint - The French government is struggling to address its growing fiscal deficit, facing a potential trust vote on September 8, which could lead to significant political and economic consequences [2][3][5]. Group 1: Government and Fiscal Policy - The current government under Prime Minister Borne is a fragile minority government, marking the fourth prime minister appointed by President Macron in two years [6]. - The government aims to cut €43.8 billion in spending to alleviate the fiscal deficit, but faces opposition from both left and right political factions [7]. - France's debt is increasing at a rate of €5,000 per second, with debt repayment costs expected to reach €75 billion next year [9]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, nearly double the EU's 3% limit, with plans to reduce it to 4.6% [9]. Group 2: Economic Context and Historical Background - Unlike other heavily indebted countries that implemented austerity measures, France has relied on increasing taxes to supplement its treasury, leading to a tax burden of nearly 48% of annual economic output by 2014 [10]. - Macron's administration initially reduced unemployment and increased GDP growth, but public spending remains among the highest in developed countries [10]. - The government has faced public backlash, notably during the fuel tax protests in 2018, which resulted in increased spending without improving public finances [11]. Group 3: Current Challenges and Political Landscape - The National Assembly is currently divided into three factions, complicating governance and legislative processes [13]. - There is a growing sentiment among the public for spending cuts, with 78% of French citizens acknowledging the debt issue, yet many do not propose specific measures [18]. - The potential for intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) looms if the trust vote fails, indicating a loss of confidence in the government's fiscal management [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - The yield on French government bonds has surged, with the 10-year bond yield now the highest in the Eurozone, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal stability [15]. - The concept of "bond vigilantes" is emerging, where investors may force the government to take action by selling off bonds, which could exacerbate the fiscal crisis [15][17]. - Predictions suggest that if Macron were to resign, the yield spread between French and German bonds could reach unprecedented levels, indicating severe market distress [15].