“黑天鹅”突袭！刚刚，直线跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Shigeru Ishiba has led to increased political instability in Japan, causing fluctuations in the yen and impacting market volatility [2][4][6]. Political Developments - Ishiba announced his resignation during an emergency press conference, stating he would take responsibility until a new president is elected, expressing regret over not meeting public expectations and addressing issues like the "black money" scandal [6][7]. - The LDP is expected to hold a presidential election soon, with candidates having 1-2 weeks for campaigning. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second round will be held [7][8]. - Key contenders for the new LDP president include Sanae Takaichi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, with Takaichi currently leading in polls [7]. Market Reactions - Following Ishiba's resignation, the yen depreciated sharply, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising by 0.79% [4][6]. - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.81%, indicating a positive market response despite political uncertainty [6]. US-Japan Trade Agreement - The details of a significant trade agreement between the US and Japan, involving a $550 billion strategic investment, have been revealed, with the US retaining final decision-making authority over investment projects [10][11]. - Japan faces the risk of new tariffs from the US if it refuses to fund selected projects, highlighting the power dynamics in the agreement [10]. - The profit-sharing structure of the investment is notable, with Japan receiving 10% of profits after recovering its initial investment, while the US retains 90% thereafter, resembling a debt-like investment rather than traditional equity [11][12]. Strategic Investment Focus - The $550 billion investment will target key strategic sectors identified by Washington, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, shipbuilding, energy, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing [12].