央行大动作！万亿资产狂欢

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in international gold prices, driven by strong demand from central banks, particularly China's, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [3][6][11]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, with the latest figures showing reserves at 74.02 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [6]. - Globally, central banks purchased over 1,180 tons of gold in 2024, setting a new annual record, following purchases of 1,037 tons in 2023 and 1,082 tons in 2022 [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has significantly increased, influenced by disappointing non-farm payroll data and a rise in unemployment [11]. - The latest non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs in August, far below the expected 75,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [11]. - Market expectations indicate a nearly 100% chance of a rate cut in September, with over 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut [11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Risks - Current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, driven by concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions [15]. - Factors contributing to the strong performance of gold include the potential removal of Federal Reserve board members by former President Trump and persistent global economic pressures [15]. Group 4: Performance of Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector in the A-share market has seen a significant increase, with the sector index rising by 74.7% year-to-date [17]. - Notable performers include Western Gold and Zhaojin Gold, which have seen year-to-date gains of 161.13% and 152.39%, respectively [17]. - The total market capitalization of the precious metals sector has reached 1.14 trillion yuan, with Zijin Mining valued at 671.6 billion yuan [17]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - Many institutions remain optimistic about the precious metals sector, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [20]. - Longer-term forecasts suggest that gold could rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with potential for prices to exceed $4,500 per ounce due to increasing risks in U.S. institutional credibility and concentrated commodity supply [20].