泸州老窖：“1574”能否拯救“1573”？

Core Viewpoint - For the first time in a decade, Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) has reported a simultaneous decline in both quarterly revenue and net profit [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% [3]. - In the second quarter, the single-quarter revenue was 7.102 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline, while net profit fell by 11.1% to 3.070 billion yuan [3]. Sales Dynamics - The core product, Guojiao 1573, saw a sales decline of approximately 5% in the first half of the year, with reports indicating a more severe drop of 30% to 50% in actual sales during the second quarter [4][6]. - There is a notable discrepancy between the actual sales situation and the financial results, suggesting that channel support has played a significant role in revenue stabilization [5]. Market Strategy - The white liquor industry is currently facing significant inventory reduction pressures, with major brands like Moutai (600519.SH) and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) increasing inventory pressure on distributors to stabilize market confidence [7]. - Despite the decline in Guojiao 1573 sales, the product Tequ 60 has shown a 10% growth, indicating a potential shift in consumer preference [7]. Product Positioning - Luzhou Laojiao has been promoting a "dual brand, three product lines, and major products" brand strategy, with Tequ 60 potentially filling the growth gap left by Guojiao 1573 [14]. - However, Tequ 60 is viewed more as a temporary solution to fill revenue gaps rather than a long-term game-changer in the market [16]. Channel Development - The rise of live-streaming channels has increased the visibility of Tequ 60, with new channel revenue growing by 27.55% year-on-year [18]. - Concerns exist regarding the long-term impact of live-streaming on brand value, as frequent promotions may undermine price stability [18]. Conclusion - The overall industry is experiencing challenges with inventory reduction and reliance on flagship products for performance, making Luzhou Laojiao's approach to mid-range products a noteworthy case study [17].