经济观察报·2025-09-10 09:17Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have entered a new round of increases, becoming increasingly "unattainable" as they reach historical highs, driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakened dollar confidence, and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][4][5]. Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have risen from $2,625 per ounce to over $3,600 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date rise of 40% [2][4]. - On September 9, spot gold prices reached a record high of $3,674.78 per ounce, with domestic gold concept stocks experiencing significant gains [2][4]. - The retail price of physical gold has also seen a notable increase, with prices for gold jewelry surpassing historical peaks, reaching over 1,070 RMB per gram [2]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the Fed's independence affecting the dollar index, and rising risk aversion due to fiscal and political pressures [5]. - The downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data has intensified market bets on multiple rate cuts by the Fed within the year [5]. - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. As of August, China's central bank's gold reserves increased to 74.02 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [6]. Long-term Outlook - Many institutions believe that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue in the medium to long term, driven by the weakening of the dollar-based credit monetary system and ongoing geopolitical instability [8]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3,800 per ounce in the near future, with significant support from ongoing central bank purchases and rising demand for safe-haven assets [8][9]. - Major financial institutions have raised their target prices for gold, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach between $4,000 and $5,000 per ounce by 2026 under extreme risk scenarios [9]. Investment Strategy - Given the low correlation of gold with other major asset classes, it is recommended that investors consider gold as a fundamental component of their asset allocation, employing strategies such as dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips [9].