马斯克：到2030年，AI将比所有人类加起来都聪明

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Elon Musk's predictions regarding the future of artificial intelligence (AI), emphasizing both optimism about AI's capabilities and concerns about its rapid development and potential consequences for humanity [3][4][5]. Group 1: Predictions on AI Development - Musk predicts that by 2026, AI's cognitive abilities will surpass those of individual humans, and by 2030, AI intelligence will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans [4]. - The article highlights Musk's long-standing concerns about the rapid advancement of AI and the need for global regulatory frameworks to ensure its safety and control [5][7]. Group 2: Expert Opinions and Research - There is ongoing debate among experts regarding the timeline for achieving human-level AI, but Musk's predictions underscore the accelerating pace of AI development [6]. - A 2017 MIT study estimated a 50% chance of achieving high-level machine intelligence (HLMI) within 45 years, with a 10% chance in the next 9 years. Recent surveys indicate increasing optimism, with a 50% chance of HLMI by 2047 [9].