29年来首次！黄金或超美债，全球央行储备格局巨变

Core Viewpoint - The global central bank reserve structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, marking gold's ascendance as a primary reserve asset [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [1]. - As of the end of August, China's gold reserve value rose by $9.858 billion to $253.843 billion, with gold reserves accounting for 7.64% of total foreign exchange reserves, a historical high [1]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Central Bank Behavior - Three main factors are reshaping central bank asset allocation: the deepening cracks in the dollar-centric international monetary system, high U.S. debt levels undermining dollar credibility, and the restructuring of global order prompting central banks to accumulate gold to mitigate political risks [2][3]. - The freezing of Russian reserve assets has accelerated gold accumulation among central banks, with Russia leading this trend [3]. - The U.S. federal government debt is projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, leading to a decline in the ability to service debt, prompting other countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold [3]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Reserve Strategies - A structural shift in central bank gold reserve strategies is evident, with 59% of central banks opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [4]. - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the share of U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [4].