不降息！欧洲央行公布

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, indicating that inflation is currently around the mid-term target of 2% and that the assessment of the inflation outlook remains largely unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Inflation Outlook - The ECB has kept the rates for deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2]. - The overall inflation rate is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027. The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food, is expected to average 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2]. - The ECB aims to ensure inflation stabilizes at the 2% target in the medium term and will rely on data and assessments of inflation risks to determine appropriate monetary policy [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - The ECB forecasts economic growth of 1.2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 0.9% in June. The growth forecast for 2026 has slightly decreased to 1.0%, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 1.3% [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Tools and Asset Purchases - The ECB emphasized that there is no pre-commitment to a specific interest rate path and that the asset purchase programs are being reduced at a measurable and predictable pace [3]. - The ECB is prepared to adjust all its tools to ensure inflation remains stable at the 2% target and to maintain smooth monetary policy transmission [3].