深夜，直线跳水！美联储，突发！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. employment and inflation data, which have heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The data indicates persistent inflation and a concerning rise in unemployment claims, suggesting potential economic challenges ahead [1][4][11]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with expectations [2] - The super core CPI, which excludes housing and energy service prices, saw a slowdown in growth to 3.52% [2] Employment Data Summary - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 235,000 [5][6] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a mere increase of 22,000 jobs, continuing a trend of significantly slowed employment growth [7] Market Reactions Summary - Following the release of the inflation and employment data, traders increased their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability rising from 8% to 11.9% [1][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut was reported at 88.1% [8] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped below 4% for the first time since April [9] Economic Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that the inflation data indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, influenced by tariffs and rising service costs, which may exert lasting pressure on overall inflation [4][11] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, is expected to show a slight year-over-year increase to 3.0% [5] - Concerns about the health of the U.S. job market are growing, with indications that layoffs may be increasing as hiring slows [6][11]