券商中国·2025-09-12 04:05Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in the stock prices of leading optical module companies, influenced by a Morgan Stanley report suggesting profit-taking due to previously reflected positive fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Major optical module stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, experienced sharp declines, with Zhongji Xuchuang dropping over 6%, Xinyi Sheng over 7%, and Tianfu Communication over 8% [3]. - The overall market sentiment weakened, with the ChiNext Index and 5G Index also showing declines following the report [1][3]. Group 2: Analyst Opinions - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that most positive factors for the stocks have been priced in, suggesting a cautious approach to the sector [1][5]. - In contrast, Citigroup maintains a positive outlook for optical module companies, projecting a valuation re-rating with P/E ratios potentially exceeding 20 times due to strong demand anticipated by 2027 [1][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - Despite a decline in profits, companies like ZTE and Yoke Technology have seen significant stock price increases, with ZTE's H-shares up 49% and Yoke Technology's H-shares soaring 319% year-to-date [5]. - Since April, stock price increases for Xinyi Sheng (460%), Zhongji Xuchuang (312%), and Tianfu Communication (269%) have been notable [5]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley's analysis shows that Xinyi Sheng and Tianfu Communication's valuations have surpassed historical averages, while Zhongji Xuchuang remains below its historical average [5]. - The forward P/E ratios for Zhongji Xuchuang increased from 14 to 24 times, and for Xinyi Sheng from 8 to 20 times since early 2025 [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite short-term volatility for some ASICs, the overall narrative for optical module companies remains strong, with expectations for a valuation re-rating and P/E ratios to rise above 20 times [10]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the valuations for Xinyi Sheng and Zhongji Xuchuang remain reasonable despite recent stock price increases, with projected EPS growth for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards by 3% to 38% [10].