天天基金网·2025-09-12 05:18Core Viewpoint - The market for optical modules is experiencing volatility, with significant declines in leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, following a cautious report from Morgan Stanley suggesting profit-taking after substantial price increases [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major optical module companies saw sharp declines: Zhongji Xuchuang dropped over 6%, Xinyi Sheng over 7%, and Tianfu Communication over 8% [5]. - Since April, Xinyi Sheng has surged by 460%, Zhongji Xuchuang by 312%, and Tianfu Communication by 269%, indicating a strong upward trend prior to the recent downturn [8]. Group 2: Analyst Opinions - Morgan Stanley's report highlighted that most positive fundamental factors have been reflected in stock prices, suggesting a cautious approach to further investments in the sector [3][8]. - Citigroup maintains a more optimistic view, projecting strong demand for optical modules by 2027, and believes that a valuation re-rating to a P/E ratio above 20 is reasonable [3][14]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Despite a 12% year-on-year profit decline, ZTE's stock has risen 49% year-to-date, showcasing resilience in the face of earnings challenges [7]. - Yike De's stock price has skyrocketed by 319% despite a 22% drop in profits, driven by its high-end optical fiber products [7]. Group 4: Valuation Analysis - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that the valuations of Xinyi Sheng and Tianfu Communication have exceeded historical averages, suggesting limited room for further price increases [8]. - The forward P/E ratio for Zhongji Xuchuang has risen from 14 to 24, while Xinyi Sheng's has increased from 8 to 20 since early 2025, reflecting heightened investor expectations [8][14].