刚刚！降息100个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00%, which is less than the expected 200 basis points reduction, amid concerns of economic slowdown and inflation control [4][6][12]. Economic Conditions - The Russian economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with growth in the first seven months of 2025 nearing the lower end of the Central Bank's forecast of 1% to 2% [4][6]. - Industrial output growth in July was only 0.7%, down from 2% in June, and about half of economists' expected growth rate [4][6]. - The Central Bank's statement indicates that inflation expectations remain high, and the underlying measures of price growth have not changed significantly [12][14]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank aims to maintain tight monetary conditions to ensure inflation returns to target levels by 2026, despite the recent rate cut [4][12]. - The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 24, 2025, where further decisions will be based on inflation trends and expectations [11]. Inflation and Risks - Current inflation is reported at 8.2% as of September 8, 2025, with core inflation indicators averaging between 4% and 6% [12][14]. - The Central Bank has highlighted that the risks of inflation rising are greater than those of it falling, influenced by high inflation expectations and deteriorating external trade conditions [10][14]. - Budget risks, including potential increases in government spending and deficit targets, will also impact future monetary policy decisions [10][14]. Banking Sector Insights - The head of Sberbank described the current economic situation as a "technical stagnation," suggesting that interest rates need to drop to 12% or lower for economic recovery [7]. - Despite high borrowing costs, there are mixed views among officials regarding the severity of the economic situation, with some indicating no significant deterioration in the economy [7][8].