美联储终于要降息了！华尔街坚信：美元“世纪大跌”还有下半场

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bearish trend of the US dollar, highlighting that despite a recent stabilization, many market participants anticipate further depreciation due to various economic pressures and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Current Dollar Performance - The ICE Dollar Index experienced a nearly 11% decline in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop since 1973 [2]. - Recent data shows a significant reduction in speculative net short positions on the dollar, dropping from approximately $21 billion at the end of June to $5.7 billion [2]. - Market participants remain skeptical about a trend reversal, citing concerns over the US fiscal and trade deficits, a weak job market, and a reassessment of currency hedging strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Persistent negative factors affecting the dollar include a reevaluation of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, trade protectionism concerns, and ongoing dual deficits [4][5]. - Weak US employment data has created room for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could diminish the dollar's interest rate advantage [5]. - The current pricing in the interest rate market suggests that the Fed may continue to lower rates through the end of the year, reinforcing bearish sentiment towards the dollar [5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Hedging Strategies - Foreign holdings of US assets amount to trillions, and any reduction in risk exposure could further pressure the dollar, although large-scale sell-offs have not yet occurred [6][7]. - Asset management companies are accelerating their hedging strategies in response to the dollar's weak performance, with more participants expected to join in the next three to six months [8]. - Hedging operations typically involve selling dollars through forward contracts or swaps, which could suppress the dollar's real-time exchange rate [9]. Group 4: Government Stance on Dollar Valuation - Industry experts suggest that the US government may not actively support a strong dollar, as its "America First" agenda conflicts with a strong dollar strategy [11]. - The dollar index is projected to fluctuate between 95 and 100 in the short term, with expectations of a further 5% to 7% depreciation against major non-US currencies over the next year [11]. - Current dollar levels are viewed as neutral, with analysts indicating that the dollar still has more room for decline in the ongoing bear market [12].