中国银行业正迎来重要拐点

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is facing a critical turning point as net interest margins (NIM) have fallen below non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, indicating a dual pressure of shrinking income and rising risk [1][4][5]. Group 1: Financial Indicators - As of Q1 2025, the NPL ratio for commercial banks was 1.51%, while the NIM was 1.43%, marking the lowest NIM since 2005 [1][4]. - By Q2 2025, the NIM further declined to 1.42%, and the NPL ratio increased to 1.49%, showing a continued trend of NIM being lower than NPL [1][4]. - Over 20% of the 42 listed banks reported NIM below their NPL ratios, highlighting a significant industry trend [1][6]. Group 2: Shift to Intermediate Business Income - To address the challenges, banks are accelerating their shift towards intermediate business income, with bancassurance revenues returning to a 50% share for the first time in 15 years [2][19]. - Major banks like China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank reported over 40% year-on-year growth in bancassurance income [2][19]. - The industry faces challenges such as intensified competition, regulatory risks, and the need to escape the "low NIM-high risk" operational dilemma [2][19]. Group 3: Asset and Liability Management - The persistent decline in NIM is attributed to a combination of falling asset yields and rigid liability costs, exacerbated by insufficient effective credit demand and external pressures from bond financing [8][10]. - In H1 2025, the average NIM for listed banks decreased by 8 basis points to 1.53%, despite a 5.89% increase in loan volume, indicating that price declines are outpacing volume increases [9][10]. - Banks are adjusting their asset-liability strategies to cope with narrowing NIM, focusing on optimizing asset allocation and reducing costs [10][11]. Group 4: Non-Performing Loans and Asset Quality - The total NPL balance for commercial banks was 34,342 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an NPL ratio of 1.49%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous quarter [13][15]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 211.97%, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capacity [13]. - However, the NPL generation rate and overdue loan rates are rising, suggesting ongoing pressure on asset quality [15][16]. Group 5: Retail and Corporate Loan Dynamics - Retail loan NPLs are increasing, driven by economic fluctuations affecting small businesses and consumer credit [16][17]. - The corporate loan sector is showing signs of recovery, aided by government refinancing efforts and improved repayment capabilities in supported sectors [17][18]. - The overall loan overdue rate for listed banks rose to 1.67%, indicating a growing concern over asset quality [15][16]. Group 6: Intermediate Business Recovery - Intermediate business income is becoming a crucial growth avenue for banks, with non-interest income rising by 6.97% year-on-year in H1 2025 [19][20]. - The growth in intermediate business income is primarily driven by a recovery in capital markets and increased investment income [19][20]. - Banks are focusing on bancassurance as a key component of their wealth management strategies, with significant growth in insurance sales through bank channels [21].