刚刚！降息大消息，美联储突发！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the high probability of an interest rate cut, with a focus on potential candidates for the next Fed Chair and their implications for monetary policy [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the U.S. policy rate to a range of 4%-4.25% [3]. - There is a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with a slight chance of a 50 basis point reduction being suggested by some analysts [3][6]. - Market participants are increasingly betting on at least one more rate cut by the end of the year, with expectations for two additional cuts [3]. Group 2: Potential Candidates for Fed Chair - Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, is emerging as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with discussions on monetary policy and regulatory frameworks having taken place with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [4][5]. - Rieder's analytical approach, which emphasizes forward-looking assessments rather than relying solely on lagging data, aligns with the current administration's desire for a more flexible monetary policy [5][6]. - The selection process for the next Fed Chair is ongoing, with Mnuchin expected to present a shortlist to President Trump later this fall [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Economic indicators suggest a cooling labor market, with employment growth nearly stagnant, while inflation pressures are still building [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the Fed will prioritize addressing employment pressures over inflation concerns in the near term [8]. - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario is highlighted, where rate cuts may lead to price increases rather than economic expansion due to supply constraints [9].