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券商中国·2025-09-14 16:00

Core Viewpoint - The chip industry is experiencing favorable catalysts, particularly driven by AI demand and supply constraints in the storage chip market [1][2]. Group 1: Chip Company Insights - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for Chip Origin Technology (芯原股份) from 193 RMB to 220 RMB, reflecting strong growth momentum driven by AI orders [2][3]. - The company recorded an 86% year-on-year increase in new orders from July to mid-September, with 64% of these orders coming from the AI computing sector, leading to a total order backlog of 3 billion RMB [3][4]. - Despite a projected net loss of 18 million RMB in 2025 due to increased R&D expenses, net profit forecasts for 2026-2030 have been adjusted upwards by 2% to 7% [3][4]. - The stock price of Chip Origin Technology surged by 20% to close at 183.6 RMB, marking a year-to-date increase of 250.18% and a market capitalization of 96.52 billion RMB [4]. Group 2: Storage Chip Market Dynamics - Micron Technology has paused all product pricing for DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5, indicating potential price increases of 20%-30% due to significant supply shortages [2][7]. - SanDisk has already raised storage product prices by over 10%, signaling the start of a new price increase wave in the storage chip industry [7]. - The primary drivers for the price increases are changes in supply-demand dynamics, with strong demand from AI applications and data centers, while supply has been constrained due to production cuts by leading manufacturers [8]. - The DRAM price index has increased by approximately 72% over the past six months, reflecting the tightening supply situation [8].