碳酸锂需求超10万吨，创历史新高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 102,000 tons by August 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 7.49%, setting a new historical high [1] - Current lithium carbonate inventory remains above 140,000 tons, but the available days have been decreasing over the past six months, leading to increased price elasticity [1] - Specific demand drivers include a month-on-month increase of 8% in lithium carbonate demand from lithium iron phosphate, significant growth in energy storage demand estimated at 40%-50% for 2026, and a 12% increase in demand from ternary materials due to downstream replenishment [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere indicates a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, with the virtual-to-real ratio returning to a low level, suggesting significant resistance to upward price breakthroughs unless explosive news arises [3] - Potential short-selling opportunities include the production ramp-up of major salt lake projects and the possibility that reductions in Jiangxi may not meet expectations, likely leading to an increase in domestic lithium carbonate production [3] - Overall, before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to continue a tug-of-war between strong realities and weak expectations, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating around 70,000 yuan [5]