当美元降息“鸽声”回荡，什么资产会受益？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the intersection of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift and China's new productivity dividend may lead to a new turning point in global capital allocation and macroeconomic restructuring [1][2][3] - The U.S. labor market has shown significant cooling, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [5][6] - Market consensus indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to announce interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of a total reduction of 125 basis points over the next five meetings [6][8] Group 2 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "how to cut rates," with expectations of a gradual approach to rate cuts [8][10] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to boost risk appetite in the U.S. stock market, particularly benefiting growth and small-cap stocks [10][11] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is projected to provide much-needed capital support for emerging markets [11][16] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged due to expectations of rate cuts and global fiscal concerns, with prices rising over 8% since mid-August and nearly 40% year-to-date [14][15] - The demand for gold is driven by central banks' continued purchases, investor hedging against fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties, and the lower opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [14][15] - The article highlights a potential shift in asset allocation strategies, with a move towards diversified investments that include low-correlation assets like gold [15][16]