全球“央行超级周”再现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "central bank super week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England, with a focus on the potential for rate cuts due to economic conditions [3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [5][6]. - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% in August, indicating persistent inflation, while weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years [5]. - Analysts predict that the Fed will prioritize labor market weakness over inflation concerns, with expectations of three rate cuts this year, starting in September [6][7]. - The Fed's approach is characterized as gradual, with a focus on assessing the impacts of tariffs and fiscal policies on inflation and labor supply [7]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, despite recent trade agreements with the U.S. [8][9]. - Political uncertainty following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may influence the Bank's future monetary policy decisions [8]. - Market expectations for a rate hike in October have decreased, with a high probability (98%) that the BOJ will keep rates unchanged [9]. Bank of England - The Bank of England's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was contentious, reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures [9][10]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including unemployment rates and CPI, will provide further insights into the UK's economic health and the Bank's policy direction [10]. - The BOE's deputy governor indicated that while current rates may not be at neutral levels, further easing could risk reversing policy direction later [10]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to resume rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by rising unemployment and GDP contraction [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank will adopt a cautious approach, potentially cutting rates twice in the coming months due to economic pressures [11].