事关物价、民间投资、三季度经济运行，国家统计局最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, supported by various favorable factors for consumer price index (CPI) recovery and the optimization of the private economy environment [1][6]. Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6%, indicating robust growth in the service sector [2]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with a notable increase in the sales of goods related to trade-in programs [2]. - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [2]. Employment and Unemployment - The urban survey unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but unchanged from the same month last year, indicating stable employment conditions [2]. CPI and PPI Trends - The core CPI reached its highest level since February 2024, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, suggesting potential positive changes in price trends [4][5]. - Factors contributing to the expected CPI recovery include increased consumer demand due to seasonal changes and upcoming holidays, as well as regulatory measures to curb disorderly competition among enterprises [5]. Consumer and Investment Outlook - The upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays are anticipated to further boost consumer spending, leading to an expansion and enhancement of consumption [6]. - Despite external pressures, the domestic economy is expected to remain resilient, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which will enhance consumer capacity and willingness [6]. - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, but excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 3%, indicating a positive trend in private sector participation in major infrastructure projects [7].