最新LP梳理系列：（八）S基金

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and trends of the S market in China, highlighting its role in asset circulation amidst a challenging economic environment. It emphasizes the importance of S funds in managing existing assets rather than generating new capital, especially as the market faces a transition from growth to a focus on existing investments [5][4]. Group 1: S Market Overview - The S market in China is entering a phase of stock game, with increasing pressure on capital return due to changes in IPO policies and macroeconomic adjustments. The S market is expected to play a more significant role in the exit strategy for investments during 2024-2025 [5]. - In 2024, the overall trading scale of the S market is projected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year, reaching 40.53 billion RMB, driven by improved market sentiment and policy support [9]. - The number of transactions has been declining since 2021, dropping to 395 in 2024, attributed to a shift towards more complex transaction structures and increased compliance costs due to state-owned enterprises' involvement [11][12]. Group 2: Market Participants and Transactions - The majority of trading targets in the S market are venture capital funds, accounting for 54.8% of the total, followed by growth funds at 31.9% and early-stage funds at 7.3%. This concentration is due to the sellers' reluctance to accept losses and buyers' expectations for higher returns [15]. - From Q1 to Q3 of 2024, the overall trading scale decreased compared to the same period last year, with corporate investors becoming the most active buyers in the S market [19]. - The number of S funds registered from 2023 to Q3 2024 reached 17, with a total scale of 13.96 billion RMB, indicating a growing interest in S funds across various provinces [22]. Group 3: Global S Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, the global S market's total trading scale is expected to reach 105 billion USD, a 52% increase year-on-year, with GP-led transactions showing significant growth [25]. - The distribution of trading assets in the global S market is primarily dominated by merger and acquisition funds, which increased from 65% to 71% of the total market share [29]. - The pricing for all strategies in the first half of 2025 remained stable at 82% of net asset value (NAV), reflecting a cautious but optimistic market sentiment [33]. Group 4: Challenges in S Transactions - The core challenge in S transactions is the low conversion rate, with a linear relationship observed between the number of projects and the number of completed transactions, indicating a scarcity of quality assets [55]. - Common obstacles in transactions include internal compliance issues, particularly for state-owned buyers, while private buyers face challenges related to asset quality and counterparties [59].