8月经济数据现短期波动，政策加码预期升温

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's economy showed short-term fluctuations due to export pressures but demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with expectations for macro policies to continue supporting growth [3][11]. Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July, marking the lowest since September 2024 [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from July, representing the lowest growth rate this year [3]. - From January to August, fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months of the year [3]. New Growth Points - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.5% year-on-year from January to August, with integrated circuit manufacturing and aerospace equipment manufacturing increasing by 22.3% and 14.6%, respectively [5]. - The production of industrial robots and civilian drones surged by 29.9% and 53.7%, respectively, indicating steady progress in intelligent and green transformation [5]. - Despite a nominal decline of 0.4% in industrial enterprises' export delivery value in August, the overall industrial production remained stable with ongoing cultivation of new productive forces [5][6]. Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [8]. - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4%, with non-automotive consumer goods retail sales increasing by 3.7% [8]. - The implementation of consumption promotion policies, such as trade-in programs, has stimulated consumer demand, leading to significant growth in related product sales [9]. Investment Landscape - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 326.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [11]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) increased by 2.0% [11][12]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 12.9% in the first eight months, although signs of stabilization are emerging in the market [13]. Policy Outlook - Analysts expect new significant measures to be introduced in the fourth quarter, focusing on fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts, and stronger support for the real estate market [3][14]. - The macro policy is characterized by a gradual and supportive approach, with an emphasis on stabilizing investment and promoting consumption to counteract economic pressures [14].