周期王者归来？又一个黄金赛道诞生

Core Viewpoint - The traditional cyclical sectors, represented by non-ferrous metals and chemicals, have recently experienced a strong upward trend, contrasting with the technology growth style that has dominated the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the low point in April, the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Index and the China Securities Chemical Sub-Industry Index have rebounded by 57% and 32% respectively, ranking among the top in the secondary industry indices [2]. - Significant capital has flowed out of technology-focused ETFs and into chemical and non-ferrous metal ETFs, indicating a "high cut low" trend in investment [3]. - In the past three months, chemical ETFs and non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen net inflows of 19.2 billion and 13.7 billion respectively, reflecting a shift in market expectations [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The previous peak in capital expenditure for traditional cyclical industries has passed, leading to market-driven supply-side adjustments and enhanced industry self-discipline [4]. - The demand for precious metals has been driven by a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance and a weak non-farm payroll report, leading to rising gold prices [4]. - Industrial metals like copper are in a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices are supported by limited global production increases [4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Context - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant macroeconomic factor that could enhance domestic production factor prices and improve corporate balance sheets, thereby boosting consumption and reinvestment [7][9]. - The current economic context differs from previous supply-side reforms, focusing more on market-driven adjustments rather than forced elimination of excess capacity [8][9]. Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - New technologies such as AI and renewable energy are injecting unprecedented demand into traditional cyclical industries, reshaping their value chains [10]. - The demand for copper, driven by AI and renewable energy sectors, has already surpassed 20% of global copper demand and continues to grow rapidly [11]. - The development of AI is expected to revolutionize material science, potentially leading to new materials and industrial revolutions in the future [11].