突然！美联储，重大变数！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant developments ahead of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision meeting, including the approval of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Board member and the strong retail sales data for August, which exceeded market expectations [1][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Developments - Stephen Milan was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as a member of the Federal Reserve Board with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, and he is expected to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [3][5]. - Milan, who previously served as a senior economic advisor at the Treasury during Trump's first term, plans to continue as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers while serving on the Federal Reserve Board [5]. - Analysts believe that at least three members of the Federal Reserve Board, including Milan, may support a rate cut during the September meeting [6]. Group 2: Retail Sales Data - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that August retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, significantly surpassing the market expectation of a 0.2% decline [12]. - The growth in retail sales was partly driven by back-to-school shopping, with clothing and accessories sales rising by 1.0% and sales in sporting goods, bookstores, and musical instrument retailers increasing by 0.8% [12]. - Despite the strong retail sales, inflation levels rose to the highest point since the beginning of the year, indicating a complex economic environment for the Federal Reserve to navigate [14]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the conflicting economic signals, noting that while consumer spending shows resilience, overall growth is slowing, and there are increasing worries about the labor market [14]. - There is a general expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting, with market observers closely monitoring the potential for a subsequent rate-cutting cycle [14][16]. - Credit Mutuel Asset Management anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate-cutting cycle this week, with further cuts expected through 2026, potentially lowering rates to around 3.1% by 2027 [16].