21世纪经济报道·2025-09-16 15:42Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of U.S. stock indices, the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the potential impacts on global markets, particularly focusing on Chinese assets and the RMB exchange rate. Market Performance - As of September 16, U.S. stock indices showed a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45,723.21, down 0.35% year-to-date increase of 7.47% [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.05%, reaching 8,540 points, marking a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1][2] - Notable performances among tech giants included Tesla rising by 2.38% and Amazon by 1.51%, while Google and Microsoft experienced slight declines [2] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points, with a small chance of a 50 basis point cut during the upcoming meeting [6][10] - There are concerns about potential dissent within the Fed, which could lead to a divided vote, marking a significant moment since 2019 [6][10] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision could trigger a global wave of interest rate cuts, impacting markets worldwide [11] Impact on Chinese Assets - The anticipated Fed rate cuts may provide a boost to the A-share market, potentially leading to a second wave of upward momentum in the "golden September and silver October" period [11] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous Fed rate cuts, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed varied performance, with growth sectors benefiting from low interest rates [12] - The Fed's actions could alleviate pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, attracting foreign investment into Chinese bonds, particularly government and policy financial bonds [12][13] RMB Exchange Rate - The article suggests that the Fed's rate cuts and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, providing upward momentum for the RMB [13] - It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation [13]