突发！美联储降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, with a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [3][4]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching market expectations, while core CPI also held steady at 3.1% [4][5]. - Non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [4][5]. Market Expectations - Experts suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to prioritize employment data over inflation, leading to a probable 25 basis point rate cut [5][6]. - The market anticipates two to three rate cuts within the year, totaling around 50 to 75 basis points [9][10]. Long-term Projections - The Federal Reserve may enter a sustained rate-cutting cycle, potentially lowering rates by 200 basis points over the next year, bringing rates to between 2.25% and 2.5% [10][11]. - The long-term trajectory of interest rates remains uncertain due to factors such as globalization trends and fiscal deficits [10][11]. Political Influences - The political landscape is increasingly affecting the Federal Reserve's decisions, with recent appointments reflecting a mix of influences from both the Trump and Biden administrations [14][15]. - The potential for a more aggressive rate-cutting approach may arise if new political pressures are applied following recent appointments [15][16].