图说经济 | 如何展望未来经济走势？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's economy is expected to continue its stable and progressive development, supported by effective macro policies, deepening reforms, and a smooth domestic and international dual circulation system [3][19]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumer potential is being released, with market sales steadily recovering due to various measures aimed at boosting consumption. Notably, sales of products related to trade-in programs are performing well, and new consumption models like live-streaming sales and instant retail are rapidly growing [3][7]. - Service consumption is expanding, with increased holiday travel and a resurgence in cultural and tourism consumption, as well as active markets for sports events and film performances [5]. - Upcoming holidays such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to further stimulate consumer spending, enhancing both the volume and quality of consumption [7]. Group 2: Emerging Industry Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector is showing positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in value added from January to August [8]. - The transition towards intelligent and green manufacturing is progressing steadily, with significant production increases in industrial robots (29.9%), civilian drones (53.7%), and new energy vehicles (31.4%) during the same period [10]. - The development potential in emerging fields is continuously being released, which will help expand economic growth space and facilitate the transition from old to new growth drivers [14]. Group 3: Market Vitality - Market vitality is gradually improving, driven by the deepening of the national unified market and the strengthening of domestic circulation. The integration of domestic and foreign trade is accelerating, promoting enhanced market activity [15]. - From January to July, profits of large-scale manufacturing enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the manufacturing sector [16]. - The import and export volume of private enterprises grew by 7.4% from January to August, reflecting a robust performance in trade [17]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Policies - Macroeconomic policies are being effectively implemented across various regions and departments, contributing to stable economic development. The "two重" construction and "two新" policies have shown significant effects [20]. - The business activity expectation indices for manufacturing and service sectors in August were 53.7% and 57%, respectively, both showing an increase from the previous month, indicating positive business sentiment [18].