离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口，三大原因找到了

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.10 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong support from China's exports to various markets [1][5][6]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On September 17, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached a high of 7.0995, while the onshore rate closed at 7.1163, marking a significant increase of 65 points from the previous day [1]. - As of September 17, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.1036 and the onshore at 7.1079 [1]. - The RMB has shown notable volatility, depreciating earlier in the year but appreciating significantly since April, nearing the critical "7" level [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to three main factors: short-term expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, medium-term support from exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and other emerging markets, and long-term economic stabilization policies in China [5]. - The key driver for the recent RMB appreciation is the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which has led to a decline in the USD index and provided upward momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate against the USD in the short to medium term, with potential to break the "7" level [8]. - Key indicators for future RMB movements include changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rates and the flow of cross-border capital in China [8]. - Historical trends suggest that there is no definitive pattern for RMB exchange rate movements following Fed rate cuts, but the overall economic recovery in China and strong demand from emerging markets are expected to support the RMB [9].