“神秘交易员”押注美联储今晚降息50基点

Core Viewpoint - There are indications that market traders are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve to implement at least one 50 basis point rate cut in the remaining three policy meetings of the year, with some speculating that this could happen as soon as tonight [1][10]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate cut decision for 2025 at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, with the market widely anticipating a 25 basis point cut [1]. - Some traders are hedging against the risk of a more significant rate cut due to signs of a cooling labor market, despite persistent inflation in the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Significant Trades - A "mysterious trader" in the CME's federal funds futures market is reportedly preparing for a potentially dovish surprise from the Fed this week, as indicated by the largest block trade in history [2][5]. - This trade involved 84,000 federal funds futures contracts for October, with a risk exposure of $3.5 million per basis point, suggesting the trader is hedging against a 50 basis point cut [4]. Group 3: Options Market Activity - There has been an increase in demand for options related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reflecting a more dovish rate expectation than currently priced in the swap market [7]. - If the Fed implements two 50 basis point cuts or three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in its last three meetings of the year, these options could become profitable [7]. Group 4: Economic Context - Despite the prevailing view that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely, some investment banks, like Standard Chartered, speculate that the Fed may consider such a cut due to weak job growth [10]. - The pressure from the White House, including criticism from President Trump regarding the pace of rate cuts, may also influence the Fed's decision-making process [11].